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Amid the widespread uncertainty regarding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.