Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

Several members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.