Everyday Killings in Mexico Drop 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Data

The typical number of everyday murders each month in Mexico has dropped by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent government data. However, security specialists have warned that homicide data might not point to enhanced countrywide security.

Significant Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in September. This information was shared by the director of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that we’ve had over these past months is remarkably important,” the President stated, explaining that in November the lowest amount of homicides were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Fierce cartel infighting, coupled with the administration's heavily military efforts to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The figure reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an seemingly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “We have a strategy, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key components of the President's safety strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced collaboration between government departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security analysts warned that using homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is especially true considering the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“It would be excellent information if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same timeframe the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer useful for gauging the situation of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the desire to properly identify and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of daily homicides was similarly concerning because it could hide periods when there were particularly high levels of killings.

“Using the per-day average makes spikes of violent crime unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically profitable,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

However in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by high bloodshed, with several states in the grip of cartel-fueled violence. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and across the country to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to create a story of security. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s very debatable,” Vargas remarked.